We’re past the “nonsense” phase of Super Bowl XLIX week. The game itself finally is beginning to feel like less of an abstract concept and more concrete.
For many of us, that means it’s time to start thinking about … you know, football. The game is, after all, about the matchups and motivation.
To that end, Life of Dad has you covered with a concise breakdown and preview of the most important factors of the game, along with which team – the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, or the prohibitive favorite New England Patriots – has the edge in each facet and overall.
When the Patriots have the ball:
New England QB Tom Brady
The focus, naturally, is on QB Tom Brady. He is the all-time leader in postseason passing yards, TD passes and victories as a starting QB. He is attempting to join 49ers QB Joe Montana as the only three-time Super Bowl MVP. His proficiency from the pocket – especially with a healthy TE Rob Gronkowski on the field – makes Brady a threat on timing routes and hot reads in the face of blitzes. His experience on the big stage and his combination of poise and fiery leadership allow him to take over a game and bend the result to his considerable will.
Gronkowski, the top receiving TE in the game, is the focal point in the passing game. He has the size and shiftiness to create mismatches with DBs and LBs, and his hands are second-to-none in the NFL. His presence is expected to provide balance to what almost certainly will be a run-heavy game plan, with 250-pound RB LeGarrette Blount pounding the ball against the Seahawks’ front seven.
Seattle’s Legion of Boom secondary, even with the questionable health of CB Richard Sherman (elbow), is more than up to the task of shutting down New England’s already under-utilized deep passing game. Gronkowski, while dangerous in all areas of the field, can cause particular problems in the Red Zone. New England will try to set up those opportunities with a series of heavy-run formations featuring Blount and quick passes by Brady, then look to create and exploit mismatches for Gronkowski.
Keep an eye on – Patriots RT Sebastian Vollmer vs. Seahawks LDE Michael Bennett. If Seattle’s leading sack man can beat Vollmer consistently, the Brady-to-Gronkowski connection might be disrupted. New England would become one-dimensional, and even the experience of Brady, the power of Blount and the will of Gronk wouldn’t be enough.
Edge: Even
When the Seahawks have the ball:
Seattle QB Russell Wilson
RB Marshawn Lynch is clearly the most important player on Seattle’s offense, providing a bruising and effective complement to QB Russell Wilson’s decision-making ability, athleticism and leadership. The Patriots’ DT tandem of Vince Wilfork and Chris Jones must force Seattle to put the game in Wilson’s hands by closing down the inside lanes where Lynch might wreak havoc.
That said, Wilson is more than capable of dominating in the zone-read scheme employed by the Seahawks. His quickness, throwing accuracy and sharp instincts make him difficult to defend. Whether through designed runs or scrambles, Wilson can break open a play and score from virtually anywhere on the field. He also extends a play better than any other QB in the league (an average of 2.89 seconds per throw, tops in the NFL), which allows WRs Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse the latitude to shake loose from defenders in man coverage.
Keep an eye on – Lynch vs. Patriots LB Jamie Collins. Lynch is obviously most dangerous when he is terrorizing a front seven (or front eight) with violent runs inside. But he also peels off frequently and provides a reliable target for Wilson on quick slant routes and sideline routes. Collins will likely be expected to keep an extra eye on Lynch, and how he performs in that “shadow” role could determine whether Beast Mode enters full and unstoppable activation.
Edge: Seahawks
Special teams:
OK, you know what? If this game comes down to special teams, I’ll eat Aaron Gouveia’s Tedy Bruschi jersey. I know Seahawks P Jon Ryan (Canadian!) threw a TD pass on a fake FG against the Packers, and I know a recovered onside kick against Green Bay helped put Seattle back in the Super Bowl.
But listen – I’m hoping for more in this one. Two great QBs and intriguing matchups on both sides of the ball make me optimistic that it won’t come down to a long FG by Patriots K Stephen Gostkowski.
Keep an eye on – Because it could come down to a long FG by Gostkowski late, take note of how Seattle handles New England in the Red Zone as the game progresses. If they are able to take Gronk out of the game in the Red Zone (not likely), it could affect New England’s two-minute drill play calling – which could mean the difference between a 40-yard game-winning attempt and a 55-yard game-winning attempt.
Edge: Patriots
Coaching:
New England’s Bill Belichick is a Hall of Famer in waiting, but he’s not infallible. Yes, he has coached three Super Bowl champions, but none since 2004. He since has lost twice to the Giants in the Big Game.
Seattle’s Pete Carroll is a motivator and likes to spring offensive surprises (witness the fake field goal TD against the Packers). His defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn, is expected to be named Atlanta’s new head coach on Monday. None of that matters, because they are coaching against Belichick – who might not be infallible, but remains the best coach in the game and one of the best in NFL history.
Edge: Patriots
Intangibles:
No team has won consecutive Super Bowls since the 2003-04 Patriots (XXXVIII and XXXIX). No team has had a pre-Super Bowl media flap like “DeflateGate” since … well, as this LA Times story shows, there hasn’t really been anything like this in Super Bowl history.
I don’t think it matters to the Patriots. I think by kickoff Sunday, the noise will be history and the experience and savvy of Brady and Belichick will trump the confidence Seattle brings to the table as the defending champions.
Edge: Patriots
The winner: New England 27, Seattle 24.
Think you know who’s going to win Super Bowl XLIX? Here’s your chance to test your NFL knowledge against other Life of Dad readers. Leave a comment below OR comment on last week’s profile of Russell Wilson with your pick to win Super Bowl XLIX – New England or Seattle – along with a final score. The reader who picks the winner and comes closest to the total points will get to pick one (1) SWEET item from the Life of Dad Store. If more than one person picks the correct winner and total points, the contest winner will be determined by random draw. Big thanks to the Life of Dad crew for making this giveaway happen!